On 23 June, Mr Titanun Mallikamas, the Secretary of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced the outcome of the most recent meeting of the MPC in relation to Thailand’s policy rate. For the ninth consecutive meeting, the MPC has unanimously voted to maintain Thailand’s policy rate at 0.5%. Based on the current trend, it seems that the BOT will maintain the policy rate at its current low level for some time, perhaps even for the next few years.
The Committee flagged that Thailand’s economic recovery would likely be slower and more uneven than previously projected due to the third, and most recent outbreak of COVID-19 in the country. Additionally, the negative effects of this recent outbreak on the economy are likely to be significant. The Committee indicated that credit measures, financial support schemes such as asset warehousing, and debt restructuring will provide financial assistance to affected businesses in a more targeted manner than if they were to reduce the policy rate any lower, and that these financial measures should be expedited to ensure support to struggling businesses.
The Thai economy expanded at a much lower rate than expected during the third outbreak of COVID-19 and caused the BOT to lower its growth projection in March from 3% to 1.8%. This is partly due to the delay in reopening the country to tourism and uncertainty in travel restriction measures. However, the economy will be supported by a high level of public expenditure due to Emergency Decree 2564, which allows the Ministry of Finance to raise additional loans to solve economic and social problems affected by COVID-19.
The distribution of liquidity among SMEs and households has been particularly impacted by the third wave, remaining uneven due to increased credit risks. The MPC has previously flagged the distribution of liquidity into businesses and households affected by COVID-19 outbreaks as the most important financial measure to be addressed. The Committee continues to encourage financial rehabilitation measures implemented by the government to reduce debt burden and support economic recovery.
The Committee emphasised the need to continue to support the economic recovery of Thailand, urging the government to expedite disbursement of financial relief measures, as well as to accelerate the vaccine drive to prevent a continued effect on the economy by a prolonged outbreak.
The MPC stated its commitment to monitoring the economic outlook, including the success of vaccination distribution as well as the adequacy of supporting financial measures.